Object: To evaluate the effect of outpatient cost under the background of the capitation payment policy intervention in new rural cooperative medical system (NCMS). Methods: We performed retrospective time series analysis of the outpatient cost in NCMS fund by examining monthly data acquired from 2011 to 2015, in Pudong New Area . Results: In 40 months after the intervention, the mean insured outpatient cost per visit (RMB 90.37) was increased by 6.34% than 20 months before (RMB 84.98). The mean forecasted outpatient cost per visit (RMB 102.00) by Winters’ additive models was higher than observed values ( P<0.001). And there was no statistical difference between the observed and forecasted number of insured outpatients of the corresponding period by simple seasonal model (P>0.05). Conclusion: In over 3 years after the c apitation payment reform, it was very effective in controlling insured outpatient cost per visit and d id not inhibit the normal release of service demand.