Objective: From 1995 to 2015, the time series of funds and payments of basic medical insurance fund for urban workers in China was predicted from 2016 to 2025, and the basic development of was compared. Methods: Using the fitting time series ARIMA model to build the urban workers’’ basic medical insurance fund financing and payment of the total relative residual state to construct the annual use of Markov model to the fitting results, the state matrix to predict 2016 to 2025 relative residual state, to modify the time series prediction results. Results: the simulated time series of financing only, the relative fitting error is 5.81%, the relative error of the Markov model after correction for 2.01%; ARIMA simulation of spending time series, the relative fitting error is 9.14%, the relative error of the modified Markov model is reduced to 5.35%. In 2025, the basic medical insurance fund for urban employees in China was raised to 2 trillion and 301 billion 596 million yuan and 1 trillion and 909 billion 82 million yuan. There will be no annual overspending from 2016 to 2025. Conclusion: the basic medical insurance for urban employees will remain unchanged throughout the country, and the current funding policy will remain unchanged, and there will be no overruns during 2016 to 2025. It is suggested that the overall level of basic medical insurance for urban workers should be improved, and the overall level of the basic medical insurance for urban workers should be gradually raised to the provincial level as a whole, so as to improve the ability of the fund to prevent risks.